Risk assessment · Countries, cities, routes, sites, portfolios

What could go wrong, how likely, how bad.

A risk assessment exists to make a decision defensible: the lease, the expansion, the route, the trip, the investment. GeoBit scores the scenarios that matter for your decision by likelihood and impact, from the record, shows the evidence, and gives you the mitigations that move the score. On one scale, on a date, written for the people who sign.

Scoped in one working dayLikelihood and impact, scoredMitigations that move the score
Risk matrixSCORING
Decision new site
SCENARIOS 0
ABOVE APPETITE 0
MITIGATED 0
RESIDUAL —
Scenarios › Likelihood › Impact › Mitigate › ResidualSimulated display
5 × 5Likelihood by impact, on one scale, so sites and countries compare
~130Countries already scored weekly across twelve threat types, before we start
MonthsOf incident record behind every likelihood, not a gut feel
ResidualEvery mitigation shown with the score it leaves behind
DaysTo a risk assessment for a country, a city, a route, a site or a portfolio
What we assess

The scenarios that matter for your decision, scored from the record.

A generic country rating tells a board nothing about their plant. A risk assessment starts from the decision, names the ways it could go wrong, and scores each one against what has actually happened there.

Start from the decision. Open the office, run the route, send the delegation, sign the lease, underwrite the asset. The scenarios that matter follow from that, not from a template.

Likelihood from the record. Months of incidents around the place, the weekly country and city scores across twelve threat types, seasonality, and the trend. Where the record is thin, the score says so.

Impact for you. People, operations, assets, continuity, legal exposure, scored against what you told us you are protecting, not a generic scale.

Mitigations that move the score. For every scenario above your appetite: what reduces it, roughly what it costs, and the residual score afterwards. So the decision can be "yes, with these three things".

One scale across the portfolio. The same method for every site, country or route, so the next assessment compares to this one and spend goes where the score is highest.

The usual risk rating one decision

Starting pointA country colour
Scenarios specific to the decisionNone
Likelihood based onHeadlines
Mitigations with residual scoresNot shown
Defensible when it goes wrongNO
GeoBit risk assessment: decision-specific scenarios, scored from the record, with mitigationsSCOPED TO YOU
How it runs

Five steps. Every score has a record behind it.

STEP 1

Scope

The decision, what you are protecting, your appetite, and the deadline. One working day to a scope, a date and a quote.

one working day
STEP 2

Scenarios

The ways this decision goes wrong, drawn from what has actually happened to operations like yours in places like this.

from the record
STEP 3

Score

Likelihood from months of incidents and the weekly scores; impact against what you protect. Two sources before a claim.

5 × 5
STEP 4

Mitigate

For everything above appetite: the mitigation, its rough cost, and the residual score. A second analyst checks the arithmetic and the argument.

residual
STEP 5

Deliver

The report, the matrix and the mitigation plan, walked through with the people who sign. Optional: the scenarios go onto the watch.

on the date
Country or city

Before you enter

Market entry, a lease, a hire, a first delegation. The country's weekly score is the starting point; the assessment is the scenarios for your operation there.

Route or corridor

Before you move

Road corridors, maritime lanes, border crossings, a principal's itinerary. Scored stretch by stretch with the alternatives.

Site or portfolio

Before you spend

Every site on one scale so the security budget goes where the score is. Pairs with a security assessment of the sites that come out on top.

What is in the report

A page for the board, a matrix for the team, a record for the file.

Section 1One page

The decision, answered

Yes, no, or yes with conditions, and the three scores that drive it. Written for the person who signs.

WORDPDF
Section 25 × 5

The matrix

Every scenario placed by likelihood and impact, your appetite line drawn, before and after mitigation.

BOARDPDF
Section 3Per scenario

Scenario sheets

What it is, what the record shows, why the score, what would change it, and the mitigation with its cost and residual.

WORD
Section 4Mapped

The record on a map

The incidents behind each likelihood, mapped and dated, with seasonality and trend.

MAPPDF
Section 5Costed

Mitigation plan

Ordered by score reduced per dollar. What to do first, what it costs, what it buys.

SHEETWORD
Section 6Watchable

Triggers

The events that would change a score, so the assessment can go onto the watch and re-score itself instead of aging in a drawer.

BOARD
Who orders one

Anyone who has to sign, insure, lend or send.

Expand

Operations and expansion

Before the plant, the depot, the market entry or the new route.

Sign

Legal, compliance and deal teams

A defensible assessment before a lease, an acquisition or a contract in a place that worries counsel.

Insure

Insurers and lenders

Exposure on an asset or a book, on one scale, with the record attached.

Invest

Funds and asset managers

Country and site scenarios for a position, re-scored when the triggers fire.

Send

Travel and executive protection

A trip or an itinerary scored stretch by stretch, with the alternatives.

Budget

Security leadership

Every site on one scale so the spend follows the score, and the board sees why.

A colour on a map is not a risk assessment. A scored scenario is.

The country colour is where we start, because we already score every country weekly. The assessment is what that means for your decision, with the mitigations that turn a "no" into a "yes, with these three things".

How to start

Three steps. The first one is the form below.

Day 1

Tell us the decision

What you are deciding, where, what you are protecting, and when you need the answer.

Next business day

Scope, date, analyst

The scenarios we will score, when the report lands, and the quote. Say yes and the record pull starts the same day.

On the date

The report, and a call

Walked through with the people who sign. The triggers can go onto the watch the same week.

Side by side

A rating, or an assessment.

The jobCountry rating serviceGeoBit risk assessment
Starting pointA colour for the countryYour decision and what you protect
ScenariosGenericSpecific to the operation, from what has happened to operations like it
LikelihoodHeadlines and an analyst's feelMonths of incident record, weekly scores, seasonality, trend
MitigationsA listCosted, with the residual score each one leaves
ComparabilityCountries onlySites, routes, cities and countries on one scale
AfterwardsNext year's ratingTriggers onto the watch; the score re-runs when they fire
Get in the door

Start with one product. Or one month. Or tell us what you need.

You do not have to hire a desk to start. Pick one fixed first thing, or describe something else entirely, tell us where and when, and a person comes back within one working day with a scope, the date it lands, and the quote. Say yes and the work starts the next business day.

Rather talk first? Book 30 minutes · or call +1 (202) 972-1938
More ways to hire us

The rest of the lineup.

Assess a risk.

Tell us the decision, where, and when you need the answer. We come back within one working day with a scope, a date and a quote.

— or —
Book a call directly
Or call us now: +1 (202) 972-1938